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United States Cattle Inventory Approaches at Plateau

The July Cattle report shows that the stock of all cattle and calves within the U.S. was unchanged year over year at 103 million head as of July 1.  The share of beef cows was likewise stable at 32.4 million head whereas the dairy cow stock was 9.3 million, down 1.1 % year over year.  Beef replacement heifers were down 4.3 % at 4.4 million head, and dairy substitute heifers had been down 2.4 % to 4.1 million head in comparison with one year in the past.  The stock of bulls was unchanged year over year at 2.1 million head.

The July 1 stock of steers over 500 pounds was 14.7 million head, up 1.4 % year over year.  The share of different (not for alternative) heifers over 500 pounds was 7.9 million head, up 5.3 % from one year ago.  Whole steer and heifer calves beneath 500 pounds was 28.1 million head, down 0.7 % year over year.  With an estimated complete July 1 feedlot stock of 13.6 million head, these stock estimates result in an estimated feeder provide the exterior of feedlots of 37.1 million head, up barely by 0.3 % in comparison with last year.  The stock report was adequately anticipated and contained no surprises.

Such adjustments might come in the end and could be constructive or unfavorable.  If each home and worldwide demand for U.S. beef continues at present ranges, there will be little or no stress on cattle markets.  If one thing ought to occur to weaken beef demand within the U.S. or in global markets, decrease beef and cattle costs may end in some liquidation of cattle inventories.  Spectacular beef demand since 2017 is displaying some indicators of weak spot that ought to carefully monitor going ahead.  Conversely, a new development in order, most probably to happen if the myriad of trade disputes and points through which the U.S. is at the moment embroiled are resolved, might provoke further herd enlargement and new development in beef and cattle markets in some unspecified time in the future.

The U.S. cattle and beef industry could also be in virtually the most secure scenario that I can ever bear in mind.  That is relatively outstanding given the continued turbulence in exterior market situations.  Quite a few elements that might destabilize cattle markets must be monitored together with; corn costs and feed market circumstances; the impacts of African Swine Fever on world protein markets; U.S. macroeconomic situations; and trade charges amongst others. Additionally, progress or lack thereof on contemporary commerce politics or new commerce points that might come up could have a big impression, optimistic or unfavorable, on the general climate for beef and cattle markets.

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